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Posts Tagged ‘log likelihood’

## Positive log-likelihood values happen

From time to time, we get a question from a user puzzled about getting a positive log likelihood for a certain estimation. We get so used to seeing negative log-likelihood values all the time that we may wonder what caused them to be positive.

First, let me point out that there is nothing wrong with a positive log likelihood.

The likelihood is the product of the density evaluated at the observations. Usually, the density takes values that are smaller than one, so its logarithm will be negative. However, this is not true for every distribution.

For example, let’s think of the density of a normal distribution with a small standard deviation, let’s say 0.1.

. di normalden(0,0,.1)
3.9894228


This density will concentrate a large area around zero, and therefore will take large values around this point. Naturally, the logarithm of this value will be positive.

. di log(3.9894228)
1.3836466


In model estimation, the situation is a bit more complex. When you fit a model to a dataset, the log likelihood will be evaluated at every observation. Some of these evaluations may turn out to be positive, and some may turn out to be negative. The sum of all of them is reported. Let me show you an example.

I will start by simulating a dataset appropriate for a linear model.

clear
program drop _all
set seed 1357
set obs 100
gen x1 = rnormal()
gen x2 = rnormal()
gen y = 2*x1 + 3*x2 +1 + .06*rnormal()


I will borrow the code for mynormal_lf from the book Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Stata (W. Gould, J. Pitblado, and B. Poi, 2010, Stata Press) in order to fit my model via maximum likelihood.

program mynormal_lf
version 11.1
args lnf mu lnsigma
quietly replace lnf' = ln(normalden(\$ML_y1,mu',exp(lnsigma')))
end

ml model lf  mynormal_lf  (y = x1 x2) (lnsigma:)
ml max, nolog


The following table will be displayed:

.   ml max, nolog

Number of obs   =        100
Wald chi2(2)    =  456919.97
Log likelihood =  152.37127                       Prob > chi2     =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
eq1          |
x1 |   1.995834    .005117   390.04   0.000     1.985805    2.005863
x2 |   3.014579   .0059332   508.08   0.000      3.00295    3.026208
_cons |   .9990202   .0052961   188.63   0.000       .98864      1.0094
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnsigma      |
_cons |  -2.942651   .0707107   -41.62   0.000    -3.081242   -2.804061
------------------------------------------------------------------------------


We can see that the estimates are close enough to our original parameters, and also that the log likelihood is positive.

We can obtain the log likelihood for each observation by substituting the estimates in the log-likelihood formula:

. predict double xb

. gen double lnf = ln(normalden(y, xb, exp([lnsigma]_b[_cons])))

. summ lnf, detail

lnf
-------------------------------------------------------------
Percentiles      Smallest
1%    -1.360689      -1.574499
5%    -.0729971       -1.14688
10%     .4198644      -.3653152       Obs                 100
25%     1.327405      -.2917259       Sum of Wgt.         100

50%     1.868804                      Mean           1.523713
Largest       Std. Dev.      .7287953
75%     1.995713       2.023528
90%     2.016385       2.023544       Variance       .5311426
95%     2.021751       2.023676       Skewness      -2.035996
99%     2.023691       2.023706       Kurtosis       7.114586

. di r(sum)
152.37127

. gen f = exp(lnf)

. summ f, detail

f
-------------------------------------------------------------
Percentiles      Smallest
1%     .2623688       .2071112
5%     .9296673       .3176263
10%      1.52623       .6939778       Obs                 100
25%     3.771652       .7469733       Sum of Wgt.         100

50%     6.480548                      Mean           5.448205
Largest       Std. Dev.      2.266741
75%     7.357449       7.564968
90%      7.51112        7.56509       Variance       5.138117
95%     7.551539       7.566087       Skewness      -.8968159
99%     7.566199        7.56631       Kurtosis       2.431257
`

We can see that some values for the log likelihood are negative, but most are positive, and that the sum is the value we already know. In the same way, most of the values of the likelihood are greater than one.

As an exercise, try the commands above with a bigger variance, say, 1. Now the density will be flatter, and there will be no values greater than one.

In short, if you have a positive log likelihood, there is nothing wrong with that, but if you check your dispersion parameters, you will find they are small.

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