Overview

In the frequentist approach to statistics, estimators are random variables because they are functions of random data. The finite-sample distributions of most of the estimators used in applied work are not known, because the estimators are complicated nonlinear functions of random data. These estimators have large-sample convergence properties that we use to approximate their behavior in finite samples.

Two key convergence properties are consistency and asymptotic normality. A consistent estimator gets arbitrarily close in probability to the true value. The distribution of an asymptotically normal estimator gets arbitrarily close to a normal distribution as the sample size increases. We use a recentered and rescaled version of this normal distribution to approximate the finite-sample distribution of our estimators.

I illustrate the meaning of consistency and asymptotic normality by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). I use some of the Stata mechanics I discussed in Monte Carlo simulations using Stata.

Consistent estimator

A consistent estimator gets arbitrarily close in Read more…

This post was written jointly with Yulia Marchenko, Executive Director of Statistics, StataCorp.

As of update 03 Mar 2016, bayesmh provides a more convenient way of fitting distributions to the outcome variable. By design, bayesmh is a regression command, which models the mean of the outcome distribution as a function of predictors. There are cases when we do not have any predictors and want to model the outcome distribution directly. For example, we may want to fit a Poisson distribution or a binomial distribution to our outcome. This can now be done by specifying one of the four new distributions supported by bayesmh in the likelihood() option: dexponential(), dbernoulli(), dbinomial(), or dpoisson(). Previously, the suboption noglmtransform of bayesmh‘s option likelihood() was used to fit the exponential, binomial, and Poisson distributions to the outcome variable. This suboption continues to work but is now undocumented.

For examples, see Beta-binomial model, Bayesian analysis of change-point problem, and Item response theory under Remarks and examples in [BAYES] bayesmh.

We have also updated our earlier “Bayesian binary item response theory models using bayesmh” blog entry to use the new dbernoulli() specification when fitting 3PL, 4PL, and 5PL IRT models.

Overview

I describe how to generate random numbers and discuss some features added in Stata 14. In particular, Stata 14 includes a new default random-number generator (RNG) called the Mersenne Twister (Matsumoto and Nishimura 1998), a new function that generates random integers, the ability to generate random numbers from an interval, and several new functions that generate random variates from nonuniform distributions.

Random numbers from the uniform distribution

In the example below, we use runiform() to create Read more…

\(\newcommand{\epsb}{{\boldsymbol{\epsilon}}}
\newcommand{\mub}{{\boldsymbol{\mu}}}
\newcommand{\thetab}{{\boldsymbol{\theta}}}
\newcommand{\Thetab}{{\boldsymbol{\Theta}}}
\newcommand{\etab}{{\boldsymbol{\eta}}}
\newcommand{\Sigmab}{{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}}
\newcommand{\Phib}{{\boldsymbol{\Phi}}}
\newcommand{\Phat}{\hat{{\bf P}}}\)Vector autoregression (VAR) is a useful tool for analyzing the dynamics of multiple time series. VAR expresses a vector of observed variables as a function of its own lags.

Simulation

Let’s begin by simulating a bivariate VAR(2) process using the following specification,

\[
\begin{bmatrix} y_{1,t}\\ y_{2,t}
\end{bmatrix}
= \mub + {\bf A}_1 \begin{bmatrix} y_{1,t-1}\\ y_{2,t-1}
\end{bmatrix} + {\bf A}_2 \begin{bmatrix} y_{1,t-2}\\ y_{2,t-2}
\end{bmatrix} + \epsb_t
\]

where \(y_{1,t}\) and \(y_{2,t}\) are the observed series at time \(t\), \(\mub\) is a \(2 \times 1\) vector of intercepts, \({\bf A}_1\) and \({\bf A}_2\) are \(2\times 2\) parameter matrices, and \(\epsb_t\) is a \(2\times 1\) vector of innovations that is uncorrelated over time. I assume a \(N({\bf 0},\Sigmab)\) distribution for the innovations \(\epsb_t\), where \(\Sigmab\) is a \(2\times 2\) covariance matrix.

I set my sample size to 1,100 and Read more…

This post was written jointly with Joerg Luedicke, Senior Social Scientist and Statistician, StataCorp.

The command gmm is used to estimate the parameters of a model using the generalized method of moments (GMM). GMM can be used to estimate the parameters of models that have more identification conditions than parameters, overidentified models. The specification of these models can be evaluated using Hansen’s J statistic (Hansen, 1982).

We use gmm to estimate the parameters of a Poisson model with an endogenous regressor. More instruments than regressors are available, so the model is overidentified. We then use estat overid to calculate Hansen’s J statistic and test the validity of the overidentification restrictions.

In previous posts Read more…

This post was written jointly with Yulia Marchenko, Executive Director of Statistics, StataCorp.

Overview
1PL model
2PL model
3PL model
4PL model
5PL model
Conclusion

Item response theory (IRT) is used for modeling the relationship between the latent abilities of a group of subjects and the examination items used for measuring their abilities. Stata 14 introduced a suite of commands for fitting IRT models using maximum likelihood; see, for example, the blog post Spotlight on irt by Rafal Raciborski and the [IRT] Item Response Theory manual for more details. In this post, we demonstrate how to fit Bayesian binary IRT models by using the redefine() option introduced for the bayesmh command in Stata 14.1. We also use the likelihood option dbernoulli() available as of the update on 03 Mar 2016 for fitting Bernoulli distribution. If you are not familiar with the concepts and jargon of Bayesian statistics, you may want to watch the introductory videos on the Stata Youtube channel before proceeding.

Introduction to Bayesian analysis, part 1 : The basic concepts
Introduction to Bayesian analysis, part 2: MCMC and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm

We use the abridged version of the mathematics and science data from DeBoeck and Wilson (2004), masc1. The dataset includes 800 student responses to 9 test questions intended to measure mathematical ability.

The irt suite fits IRT models using data in the wide form – one observation per subject with items recorded in separate variables. To fit IRT models using bayesmh, we need data in the long form, where items are recorded as multiple observations per subject. We thus reshape the dataset in a long form: we have a single binary response variable, y, and two index variables, item and id, which identify the items and subjects, respectively. This allows us to Read more…

In a previous post I illustrated that the probit model and the logit model produce statistically equivalent estimates of marginal effects. In this post, I compare the marginal effect estimates from a linear probability model (linear regression) with marginal effect estimates from probit and logit models.

My simulations show that when the true model is a probit or a logit, using a linear probability model can produce inconsistent estimates of the marginal effects of interest to researchers. The conclusions hinge on the probit or logit model being the true model.

Simulation results

For all simulations below, I use a sample size of 10,000 and 5,000 replications. The true data-generating processes (DGPs) are constructed using Read more…

We often use probit and logit models to analyze binary outcomes. A case can be made that the logit model is easier to interpret than the probit model, but Stata’s margins command makes any estimator easy to interpret. Ultimately, estimates from both models produce similar results, and using one or the other is a matter of habit or preference.

I show that the estimates from a probit and logit model are similar for the computation of a set of effects that are of interest to researchers. I focus on the effects of changes in the covariates on the probability of a positive outcome for continuous and discrete covariates. I evaluate these effects on average and at the mean value of the covariates. In other words, I study the average marginal effects (AME), the average treatment effects (ATE), the marginal effects at the mean values of the covariates (MEM), and the treatment effects at the mean values of the covariates (TEM).

First, I present the results. Second, I discuss the code used for the simulations.

Results

In Table 1, I present the results of a simulation with 4,000 replications when the true data generating process (DGP) satisfies the assumptions of a probit model. I show the Read more…

I use features new to Stata 14.1 to estimate an average treatment effect (ATE) for a heteroskedastic probit model with an endogenous treatment. In 14.1, we added new prediction statistics after mlexp that margins can use to estimate an ATE.

I am building on a previous post in which I demonstrated how to use mlexp to estimate the parameters of a probit model with an endogenous treatment and used margins to estimate the ATE for the model Using mlexp to estimate endogenous treatment effects in a probit model. Currently, no official commands estimate the heteroskedastic probit model with an endogenous treatment, so in this post I show how mlexp can be used to extend the models estimated by Stata. Read more…

\(\newcommand{\Eb}{{\bf E}}\)This post was written jointly with Enrique Pinzon, Senior Econometrician, StataCorp.

The generalized method of moments (GMM) is a method for constructing estimators, analogous to maximum likelihood (ML). GMM uses assumptions about specific moments of the random variables instead of assumptions about the entire distribution, which makes GMM more robust than ML, at the cost of some efficiency. The assumptions are called moment conditions.

GMM generalizes the method of moments (MM) by allowing the number of moment conditions to be greater than the number of parameters. Using these extra moment conditions makes GMM more efficient than MM. When there are more moment conditions than parameters, the estimator is said to be overidentified. GMM can efficiently combine the moment conditions when the estimator is overidentified.

We illustrate these points by estimating the mean of a \(\chi^2(1)\) by MM, ML, a simple GMM estimator, and an efficient GMM estimator. This example builds on Efficiency comparisons by Monte Carlo simulation and is similar in spirit to the example in Wooldridge (2001). Read more…